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Hitthaller St. Michael vs Mettersdorf — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
FT
1 – 6
Mettersdorf
Mettersdorf
10/16/2021Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 13Sportplatz Esv Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Hitthaller St. Michael24%
×Draw22%
Mettersdorf54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hitthaller St. Michael
1.23
Mettersdorf
1.95

Mettersdorf creates 59% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 44 away

creates per match

Hitthaller St. Michael
1.15
Mettersdorf
1.86

allows per match

Hitthaller St. Michael
2.04
Mettersdorf
1.30

finishing

Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par
Mettersdorf+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitthaller St. Michael ↓

Mettersdorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hitthaller St. Michael or draw
46%
Hitthaller St. Michael or Mettersdorf
78%
Draw or Mettersdorf
76%

Winning margin

Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
10%
Mettersdorf wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
71%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
35%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
13%
Mettersdorf 1+ goals
86%
Mettersdorf 2+ goals
58%
Mettersdorf 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
31%
Mettersdorf (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitthaller St. Michael at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

Mettersdorf away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.30 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.15 + Mettersdorf defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Mettersdorf attack 1.86 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
24%
level
22%
Mettersdorf scores more
54%

Mettersdorf at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mettersdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hitthaller St. Michael 1 – 6 Mettersdorf

Mettersdorf beat Hitthaller St. Michael 6-1 in Landesliga - Steiermark on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Esv Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark in Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark.