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Hitthaller St. Michael vs Liezen — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
CANC
00:00
Liezen
Liezen
3/14/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 16Sportplatz Esv Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Hitthaller St. Michael50%
×Draw22%
Liezen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hitthaller St. Michael
1.95
Liezen
1.40

Hitthaller St. Michael creates 39% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 42 away

creates per match

Hitthaller St. Michael
1.15
Liezen
0.76

allows per match

Hitthaller St. Michael
2.04
Liezen
2.74

finishing

Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par
Liezen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitthaller St. Michael ↓

Liezen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hitthaller St. Michael or draw
72%
Hitthaller St. Michael or Liezen
78%
Draw or Liezen
50%

Winning margin

Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
29%
Liezen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
86%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
58%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
31%
Liezen 1+ goals
75%
Liezen 2+ goals
41%
Liezen 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
64%
Liezen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitthaller St. Michael at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

Liezen away — creates 0.76, concedes 2.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.15 + Liezen defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 1.95

Liezen attack 0.76 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
50%
level
22%
Liezen scores more
28%

Hitthaller St. Michael at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hitthaller St. Michael will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hitthaller St. Michael vs Liezen — Match Preview

Hitthaller St. Michael face Liezen on March 14, 2020 in this Landesliga - Steiermark fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Hitthaller St. Michael host Liezen at Sportplatz Esv Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.