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Hitthaller St. Michael vs Bruck an der Mur — Landesliga - Steiermark 2019

Hitthaller St. Michael
Hitthaller St. Michael
CANC
00:00
Bruck an der Mur
Bruck an der Mur
4/11/2020Landesliga - SteiermarkLandesliga - Steiermark · Steiermark - 20Sportplatz Esv Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Hitthaller St. Michael43%
×Draw22%
Bruck an der Mur35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hitthaller St. Michael
1.86
Bruck an der Mur
1.68

Hitthaller St. Michael creates 11% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 74 away

creates per match

Hitthaller St. Michael
1.15
Bruck an der Mur
1.31

allows per match

Hitthaller St. Michael
2.04
Bruck an der Mur
2.57

finishing

Hitthaller St. Michael+0.00on par
Bruck an der Mur+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitthaller St. Michael ↓

Bruck an der Mur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hitthaller St. Michael or draw
65%
Hitthaller St. Michael or Bruck an der Mur
78%
Draw or Bruck an der Mur
57%

Winning margin

Hitthaller St. Michael wins by 2+
23%
Bruck an der Mur wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hitthaller St. Michael 1+ goals
84%
Hitthaller St. Michael 2+ goals
55%
Hitthaller St. Michael 3+ goals
28%
Bruck an der Mur 1+ goals
81%
Bruck an der Mur 2+ goals
50%
Bruck an der Mur 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Hitthaller St. Michael (draw refunded)
55%
Bruck an der Mur (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitthaller St. Michael at home — creates 1.15, concedes 2.04 · 27 matches

Bruck an der Mur away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.57 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitthaller St. Michael attack 1.15 + Bruck an der Mur defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.86

Bruck an der Mur attack 1.31 + Hitthaller St. Michael defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hitthaller St. Michael scores more
43%
level
22%
Bruck an der Mur scores more
35%

Hitthaller St. Michael at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hitthaller St. Michael will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Hitthaller St. Michael host Bruck an der Mur

April 11, 2020: Hitthaller St. Michael take on Bruck an der Mur in Landesliga - Steiermark. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Hitthaller St. Michael host Bruck an der Mur at Sportplatz Esv Sankt Michael in Obersteiermark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.