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Hittarp vs Eskilsminne — Division 2 - Västra Götaland 2019

Hittarp
Hittarp
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Eskilsminne
Eskilsminne
8/14/2022Division 2 - Västra GötalandDivision 2 - Västra Götaland · Västra Götaland - 17Laröds IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Hittarp28%
×Draw23%
Eskilsminne50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hittarp
1.33
Eskilsminne
1.85

Eskilsminne creates 39% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 28 away

creates per match

Hittarp
1.85
Eskilsminne
2.00

allows per match

Hittarp
1.71
Eskilsminne
0.82

finishing

Hittarp+0.00on par
Eskilsminne+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hittarp ↓

Eskilsminne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hittarp or draw
50%
Hittarp or Eskilsminne
77%
Draw or Eskilsminne
72%

Winning margin

Hittarp wins by 2+
12%
Eskilsminne wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Hittarp 1+ goals
74%
Hittarp 2+ goals
38%
Hittarp 3+ goals
15%
Eskilsminne 1+ goals
84%
Eskilsminne 2+ goals
55%
Eskilsminne 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Hittarp (draw refunded)
36%
Eskilsminne (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hittarp at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

Eskilsminne away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hittarp attack 1.85 + Eskilsminne defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.33

Eskilsminne attack 2.00 + Hittarp defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hittarp scores more
28%
level
23%
Eskilsminne scores more
50%

Eskilsminne at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Eskilsminne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hittarp vs Eskilsminne

Eskilsminne beat Hittarp 4-0 in Division 2 - Västra Götaland on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at Laröds IP in Helsingborg.