Hitrino 0–3 Shumen 2007: Result & Stats

Hitrino

FT

0 – 3

Shumen 2007

2/22/2020

Third League - Northeast · North-East - 16Stadion Hitrino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hitrino40%

×Draw23%

Shumen 200737%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HitrinoExpected goals in this matchShumen 2007

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.68

Hitrino

1.75

Shumen 2007

1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 23 home / 36 away

1.96

creates per match

2.06

1.30

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Hitrino

1.96

Shumen 2007

2.06

allows per match

Hitrino

1.30

Shumen 2007

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hitrino+0.00on par

Shumen 2007+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitrino ↓

Shumen 2007 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Hitrino or draw

63%

Hitrino or Shumen 2007

77%

Draw or Shumen 2007

60%

Winning margin

Hitrino wins by 2+

21%

Shumen 2007 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hitrino 1+ goals

83%

Hitrino 2+ goals

52%

Hitrino 3+ goals

25%

Shumen 2007 1+ goals

81%

Shumen 2007 2+ goals

50%

Shumen 2007 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hitrino (draw refunded)

52%

Shumen 2007 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitrino at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Shumen 2007 away — creates 2.06, concedes 1.53 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitrino attack 1.96 + Shumen 2007 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.75

Shumen 2007 attack 2.06 + Hitrino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hitrino scores more

40%

level

23%

Shumen 2007 scores more

37%

Hitrino at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hitrino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff