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Hitrino vs Lokomotiv Ruse — Third League - Northeast 2018

Hitrino
Hitrino
FT
5 – 0
Lokomotiv Ruse
Lokomotiv Ruse
4/13/2019Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Round 23Stadion Panayot Volov (Šumen (Shumen))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Hitrino65%
×Draw19%
Lokomotiv Ruse16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hitrino
2.33
Lokomotiv Ruse
1.08

Hitrino creates 116% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 52 away

creates per match

Hitrino
1.96
Lokomotiv Ruse
0.87

allows per match

Hitrino
1.30
Lokomotiv Ruse
2.71

finishing

Hitrino+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hitrino ↓

Lokomotiv Ruse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Hitrino or draw
84%
Hitrino or Lokomotiv Ruse
81%
Draw or Lokomotiv Ruse
35%

Winning margin

Hitrino wins by 2+
42%
Lokomotiv Ruse wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hitrino 1+ goals
90%
Hitrino 2+ goals
67%
Hitrino 3+ goals
41%
Lokomotiv Ruse 1+ goals
66%
Lokomotiv Ruse 2+ goals
29%
Lokomotiv Ruse 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hitrino (draw refunded)
80%
Lokomotiv Ruse (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hitrino at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Lokomotiv Ruse away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hitrino attack 1.96 + Lokomotiv Ruse defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.33

Lokomotiv Ruse attack 0.87 + Hitrino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Hitrino scores more
65%
level
19%
Lokomotiv Ruse scores more
16%

Hitrino at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Hitrino will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hitrino 5 – 0 Lokomotiv Ruse

Hitrino beat Lokomotiv Ruse 5-0 in Third League - Northeast on April 13, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Panayot Volov (Šumen (Shumen)).