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Hirnyk vs Kramatorsk — Persha Liga 2019

Hirnyk
Hirnyk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kramatorsk
Kramatorsk
10/16/2021Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 14Stadion SK Hirnyk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Hirnyk60%
×Draw22%
Kramatorsk18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hirnyk
1.96
Kramatorsk
0.97

Hirnyk creates 102% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 40 away

creates per match

Hirnyk
2.36
Kramatorsk
0.85

allows per match

Hirnyk
1.09
Kramatorsk
1.57

finishing

Hirnyk+0.00on par
Kramatorsk+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hirnyk ↓

Kramatorsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hirnyk or draw
82%
Hirnyk or Kramatorsk
78%
Draw or Kramatorsk
40%

Winning margin

Hirnyk wins by 2+
36%
Kramatorsk wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hirnyk 1+ goals
86%
Hirnyk 2+ goals
58%
Hirnyk 3+ goals
31%
Kramatorsk 1+ goals
62%
Kramatorsk 2+ goals
25%
Kramatorsk 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Hirnyk (draw refunded)
77%
Kramatorsk (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hirnyk at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

Kramatorsk away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hirnyk attack 2.36 + Kramatorsk defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.96

Kramatorsk attack 0.85 + Hirnyk defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hirnyk scores more
60%
level
22%
Kramatorsk scores more
18%

Hirnyk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hirnyk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Hirnyk 3–0 Kramatorsk

Hirnyk beat Kramatorsk 3-0 in Persha Liga on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SK Hirnyk in Krivoj Rog.