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Hirnyk vs Avanhard II — Druha Liga - Group B 2019

Hirnyk
Hirnyk
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Avanhard II
Avanhard II
11/23/2019Druha Liga - Group BDruha Liga - Group B · Group B - 22Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hirnyk74%
×Draw16%
Avanhard II10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hirnyk
2.46
Avanhard II
0.76

Hirnyk creates 224% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hirnyk
2.52
Avanhard II
0.90

allows per match

Hirnyk
0.62
Avanhard II
2.40

finishing

Hirnyk+0.00on par
Avanhard II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hirnyk ↓

Avanhard II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hirnyk or draw
90%
Hirnyk or Avanhard II
84%
Draw or Avanhard II
26%

Winning margin

Hirnyk wins by 2+
52%
Avanhard II wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Hirnyk 1+ goals
91%
Hirnyk 2+ goals
70%
Hirnyk 3+ goals
44%
Avanhard II 1+ goals
53%
Avanhard II 2+ goals
18%
Avanhard II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hirnyk (draw refunded)
89%
Avanhard II (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hirnyk at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.62 · 21 matches

Avanhard II away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hirnyk attack 2.52 + Avanhard II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.46

Avanhard II attack 0.90 + Hirnyk defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Hirnyk scores more
74%
level
16%
Avanhard II scores more
10%

Hirnyk at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Hirnyk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Druha Liga - Group B: Hirnyk 3–0 Avanhard II

Hirnyk beat Avanhard II 3-0 in Druha Liga - Group B on November 23, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Shakhty Zhovtneva in Krivoj Rog.