Hirnyk-Sport 0–1 Nyva Ternopil: Result & Stats

Hirnyk-Sport

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Nyva Ternopil

3/22/2024

Persha Liga · Relegation Round - 1Stadion Yunist

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Hirnyk-Sport38%

×Draw28%

Nyva Ternopil34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hirnyk-SportExpected goals in this matchNyva Ternopil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.13

Hirnyk-Sport

1.20

Nyva Ternopil

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 77 away

1.05

creates per match

0.99

1.27

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Hirnyk-Sport

1.05

Nyva Ternopil

0.99

allows per match

Hirnyk-Sport

1.27

Nyva Ternopil

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hirnyk-Sport+0.00on par

Nyva Ternopil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hirnyk-Sport ↓

Nyva Ternopil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hirnyk-Sport or draw

66%

Hirnyk-Sport or Nyva Ternopil

72%

Draw or Nyva Ternopil

62%

Winning margin

Hirnyk-Sport wins by 2+

16%

Nyva Ternopil wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Hirnyk-Sport 1+ goals

70%

Hirnyk-Sport 2+ goals

34%

Hirnyk-Sport 3+ goals

12%

Nyva Ternopil 1+ goals

68%

Nyva Ternopil 2+ goals

31%

Nyva Ternopil 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hirnyk-Sport (draw refunded)

52%

Nyva Ternopil (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hirnyk-Sport at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.27 · 66 matches

Nyva Ternopil away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.34 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hirnyk-Sport attack 1.05 + Nyva Ternopil defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Nyva Ternopil attack 0.99 + Hirnyk-Sport defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Hirnyk-Sport scores more

38%

level

28%

Nyva Ternopil scores more

34%

Hirnyk-Sport at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hirnyk-Sport will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff