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Hirnyk-Sport vs Alians Lypova Dolyna — Persha Liga 2019

Hirnyk-Sport
Hirnyk-Sport
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Alians Lypova Dolyna
Alians Lypova Dolyna
5/7/2021Persha LigaPersha Liga · Round 25Stadion Ynist'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Hirnyk-Sport30%
×Draw27%
Alians Lypova Dolyna44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hirnyk-Sport
1.10
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.40

Alians Lypova Dolyna creates 27% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 25 away

creates per match

Hirnyk-Sport
1.05
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.52

allows per match

Hirnyk-Sport
1.27
Alians Lypova Dolyna
1.16

finishing

Hirnyk-Sport+0.00on par
Alians Lypova Dolyna+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hirnyk-Sport ↓

Alians Lypova Dolyna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hirnyk-Sport or draw
56%
Hirnyk-Sport or Alians Lypova Dolyna
73%
Draw or Alians Lypova Dolyna
70%

Winning margin

Hirnyk-Sport wins by 2+
12%
Alians Lypova Dolyna wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Hirnyk-Sport 1+ goals
67%
Hirnyk-Sport 2+ goals
30%
Hirnyk-Sport 3+ goals
10%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 1+ goals
75%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 2+ goals
41%
Alians Lypova Dolyna 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Hirnyk-Sport (draw refunded)
40%
Alians Lypova Dolyna (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hirnyk-Sport at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.27 · 66 matches

Alians Lypova Dolyna away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.16 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hirnyk-Sport attack 1.05 + Alians Lypova Dolyna defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Alians Lypova Dolyna attack 1.52 + Hirnyk-Sport defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hirnyk-Sport scores more
30%
level
27%
Alians Lypova Dolyna scores more
44%

Alians Lypova Dolyna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alians Lypova Dolyna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persha Liga: Hirnyk-Sport 2–3 Alians Lypova Dolyna

Alians Lypova Dolyna beat Hirnyk-Sport 3-2 in Persha Liga on May 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Ynist' in Komsomol's'k.