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Hinna vs Start II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Hinna
Hinna
FT
0 – 4
Start II
Start II
10/23/20213. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 12Wintershallbanen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hinna25%
×Draw23%
Start II52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hinna
1.15
Start II
1.77

Start II creates 54% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hinna
1.14
Start II
1.67

allows per match

Hinna
1.86
Start II
1.17

finishing

Hinna+0.00on par
Start II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hinna ↓

Start II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hinna or draw
48%
Hinna or Start II
77%
Draw or Start II
75%

Winning margin

Hinna wins by 2+
10%
Start II wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Hinna 1+ goals
68%
Hinna 2+ goals
32%
Hinna 3+ goals
11%
Start II 1+ goals
83%
Start II 2+ goals
53%
Start II 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Hinna (draw refunded)
32%
Start II (draw refunded)
68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hinna at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Start II away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hinna attack 1.14 + Start II defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Start II attack 1.67 + Hinna defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hinna scores more
25%
level
23%
Start II scores more
52%

Start II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Start II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hinna vs Start II

Start II beat Hinna 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Wintershallbanen Kunstgress in Stavanger.