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Hinna vs Express — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Hinna
Hinna
CANC
12:00
Express
Express
8/22/20203. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Girone 3 - 3Wintershallbanen Kunstgress

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hinna34%
×Draw21%
Express45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hinna
1.73
Express
2.02

Express creates 17% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hinna
1.14
Express
2.17

allows per match

Hinna
1.86
Express
2.33

finishing

Hinna+0.00on par
Express+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hinna ↓

Express →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hinna or draw
55%
Hinna or Express
79%
Draw or Express
66%

Winning margin

Hinna wins by 2+
17%
Express wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Hinna 1+ goals
82%
Hinna 2+ goals
52%
Hinna 3+ goals
25%
Express 1+ goals
87%
Express 2+ goals
60%
Express 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Hinna (draw refunded)
43%
Express (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hinna at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Express away — creates 2.17, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hinna attack 1.14 + Express defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.73

Express attack 2.17 + Hinna defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Hinna scores more
34%
level
21%
Express scores more
45%

Express at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Express will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hinna vs Express — Match Preview

Hinna face Express on August 22, 2020 in this 3. Division - Girone 3 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Hinna host Express at Wintershallbanen Kunstgress.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.