ABPN Canaã 0–3 Olímpia BA: Result & Stats

ABPN Canaã

FT

0 – 3

Olímpia BA

3/31/2019

Baiano - 2 · Round 4Estádio Municipal José Rocha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

ABPN Canaã32%

×Draw28%

Olímpia BA40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABPN CanaãExpected goals in this matchOlímpia BA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.27

ABPN Canaã

1.10

Olímpia BA

1.27

Olímpia BA creates 15% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 6 away

1.71

creates per match

1.33

1.21

allows per match

0.50

creates per match

ABPN Canaã

1.71

Olímpia BA

1.33

allows per match

ABPN Canaã

1.21

Olímpia BA

0.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABPN Canaã+0.00on par

Olímpia BA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABPN Canaã ↓

Olímpia BA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

ABPN Canaã or draw

60%

ABPN Canaã or Olímpia BA

72%

Draw or Olímpia BA

68%

Winning margin

ABPN Canaã wins by 2+

13%

Olímpia BA wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

ABPN Canaã 1+ goals

67%

ABPN Canaã 2+ goals

30%

ABPN Canaã 3+ goals

10%

Olímpia BA 1+ goals

72%

Olímpia BA 2+ goals

36%

Olímpia BA 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)

44%

Olímpia BA (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABPN Canaã at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.21 · 14 matches

Olímpia BA away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABPN Canaã attack 1.71 + Olímpia BA defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 1.10

Olímpia BA attack 1.33 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

ABPN Canaã scores more

32%

level

28%

Olímpia BA scores more

40%

Olímpia BA at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Olímpia BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff