Atlanta 1–0 ABPN Canaã: Result & Stats | Baiano - 2

Atlanta

FT

1 – 0

ABPN Canaã

5/12/2019

Baiano - 2 · Round 10Estádio Municipal Pedro Caetano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atlanta55%

×Draw27%

ABPN Canaã17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AtlantaExpected goals in this matchABPN Canaã

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.66

Atlanta

1.41

ABPN Canaã

0.66

Atlanta creates 114% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

1.00

creates per match

0.64

0.67

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Atlanta

1.00

ABPN Canaã

0.64

allows per match

Atlanta

0.67

ABPN Canaã

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlanta+0.00on par

ABPN Canaã+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta ↓

ABPN Canaã →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Atlanta or draw

83%

Atlanta or ABPN Canaã

73%

Draw or ABPN Canaã

45%

Winning margin

Atlanta wins by 2+

28%

ABPN Canaã wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Atlanta 1+ goals

76%

Atlanta 2+ goals

41%

Atlanta 3+ goals

17%

ABPN Canaã 1+ goals

48%

ABPN Canaã 2+ goals

14%

ABPN Canaã 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Atlanta (draw refunded)

76%

ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

ABPN Canaã away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta attack 1.00 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.41

ABPN Canaã attack 0.64 + Atlanta defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Atlanta scores more

55%

level

27%

ABPN Canaã scores more

17%

Atlanta at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Atlanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff