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Hills Brumbies vs Dunbar Rovers — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Hills Brumbies
Hills Brumbies
FT
3 – 2
Dunbar Rovers
Dunbar Rovers
3/11/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 6Landen Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hills Brumbies54%
×Draw21%
Dunbar Rovers24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hills Brumbies
2.10
Dunbar Rovers
1.35

Hills Brumbies creates 56% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Hills Brumbies
1.82
Dunbar Rovers
0.93

allows per match

Hills Brumbies
1.77
Dunbar Rovers
2.37

finishing

Hills Brumbies+0.00on par
Dunbar Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hills Brumbies ↓

Dunbar Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hills Brumbies or draw
76%
Hills Brumbies or Dunbar Rovers
79%
Draw or Dunbar Rovers
46%

Winning margin

Hills Brumbies wins by 2+
33%
Dunbar Rovers wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hills Brumbies 1+ goals
88%
Hills Brumbies 2+ goals
62%
Hills Brumbies 3+ goals
35%
Dunbar Rovers 1+ goals
74%
Dunbar Rovers 2+ goals
39%
Dunbar Rovers 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hills Brumbies (draw refunded)
69%
Dunbar Rovers (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hills Brumbies at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.77 · 60 matches

Dunbar Rovers away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hills Brumbies attack 1.82 + Dunbar Rovers defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.10

Dunbar Rovers attack 0.93 + Hills Brumbies defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hills Brumbies scores more
54%
level
21%
Dunbar Rovers scores more
24%

Hills Brumbies at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hills Brumbies will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hills Brumbies vs Dunbar Rovers

Hills Brumbies beat Dunbar Rovers 3-2 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Landen Stadium in Blacktown.