Hillerød 5–1 Thisted FC: Result & Stats

Hillerød

FT

5 – 1

Thisted FC

D. Karjasevic 90'

J. Witt 67', 53'

A. Hojmark 14'

L. Boje-Larsen 8'

A. Bustamante 20'

10/2/2021

2nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Secma Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hillerød49%

×Draw25%

Thisted FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HillerødExpected goals in this matchThisted FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.13

Hillerød

1.64

Thisted FC

1.13

Hillerød creates 45% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 87 away

1.80

creates per match

1.20

1.05

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Hillerød

1.80

Thisted FC

1.20

allows per match

Hillerød

1.05

Thisted FC

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hillerød+0.00on par

Thisted FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hillerød ↓

Thisted FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hillerød or draw

74%

Hillerød or Thisted FC

75%

Draw or Thisted FC

51%

Winning margin

Hillerød wins by 2+

26%

Thisted FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hillerød 1+ goals

81%

Hillerød 2+ goals

49%

Hillerød 3+ goals

23%

Thisted FC 1+ goals

68%

Thisted FC 2+ goals

31%

Thisted FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hillerød (draw refunded)

65%

Thisted FC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hillerød at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Thisted FC away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.48 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hillerød attack 1.80 + Thisted FC defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.64

Thisted FC attack 1.20 + Hillerød defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hillerød scores more

49%

level

25%

Thisted FC scores more

26%

Hillerød at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hillerød will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

L. Boje-Larsen

14'

A. Hojmark

20'

A. Bustamante

53'

J. Witt

67'

J. Witt

90'

D. Karjasevic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff