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Hillerød vs Slagelse B&I — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Hillerød
Hillerød
FT
3 – 1
Slagelse B&I
Slagelse B&I
8/31/20192nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Hillerød Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Hillerød57%
×Draw22%
Slagelse B&I21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hillerød
1.95
Slagelse B&I
1.08

Hillerød creates 81% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 9 away

creates per match

Hillerød
1.79
Slagelse B&I
1.11

allows per match

Hillerød
1.05
Slagelse B&I
2.11

finishing

Hillerød+0.00on par
Slagelse B&I+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hillerød ↓

Slagelse B&I →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Hillerød or draw
79%
Hillerød or Slagelse B&I
78%
Draw or Slagelse B&I
43%

Winning margin

Hillerød wins by 2+
34%
Slagelse B&I wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hillerød 1+ goals
86%
Hillerød 2+ goals
58%
Hillerød 3+ goals
31%
Slagelse B&I 1+ goals
66%
Slagelse B&I 2+ goals
29%
Slagelse B&I 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hillerød (draw refunded)
74%
Slagelse B&I (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hillerød at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Slagelse B&I away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hillerød attack 1.79 + Slagelse B&I defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.95

Slagelse B&I attack 1.11 + Hillerød defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hillerød scores more
57%
level
22%
Slagelse B&I scores more
21%

Hillerød at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hillerød will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Hillerød 3–1 Slagelse B&I

Hillerød beat Slagelse B&I 3-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 31, 2019.

The match was played at Hillerød Stadion in Hillerød.