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Hillerød vs Skive — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Hillerød
Hillerød
FT
3 – 1
Skive
Skive
A. Hojmark 90+3', 45'
M. Nathansen 58'
O. Borsting 90+2'
8/21/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Hillerød Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hillerød46%
×Draw25%
Skive29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hillerød
1.59
Skive
1.20

Hillerød creates 33% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 84 away

creates per match

Hillerød
1.80
Skive
1.35

allows per match

Hillerød
1.05
Skive
1.38

finishing

Hillerød+0.00on par
Skive+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hillerød ↓

Skive →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hillerød or draw
71%
Hillerød or Skive
75%
Draw or Skive
54%

Winning margin

Hillerød wins by 2+
24%
Skive wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hillerød 1+ goals
80%
Hillerød 2+ goals
47%
Hillerød 3+ goals
21%
Skive 1+ goals
70%
Skive 2+ goals
34%
Skive 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hillerød (draw refunded)
62%
Skive (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hillerød at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Skive away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.38 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hillerød attack 1.80 + Skive defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.59

Skive attack 1.35 + Hillerød defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hillerød scores more
46%
level
25%
Skive scores more
29%

Hillerød at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hillerød will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
A. Hojmark
58'
M. Nathansen
90+2'
O. Borsting
90+3'
A. Hojmark

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hillerød vs Skive

Hillerød beat Skive 3-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 21, 2021.

Goals: A. Hojmark (45', 90+3'), M. Nathansen (58'), O. Borsting (90+2').

The match was played at Hillerød Stadion in Hillerød.