Hillerød 2–2 Lyngby: Result & Stats

Hillerød

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Lyngby

Unknown 90', 48'

G. Fraulo 25'

S. Colyn 22'

2/20/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hillerød27%

×Draw19%

Lyngby53%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HillerødExpected goals in this matchLyngby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

2.52

Hillerød

1.79

Lyngby

2.52

Lyngby creates 41% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

2.00

creates per match

2.29

2.75

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Hillerød

2.00

Lyngby

2.29

allows per match

Hillerød

2.75

Lyngby

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hillerød+0.00on par

Lyngby+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hillerød ↓

Lyngby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–24%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Hillerød or draw

47%

Hillerød or Lyngby

81%

Draw or Lyngby

73%

Winning margin

Hillerød wins by 2+

13%

Lyngby wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Hillerød 1+ goals

83%

Hillerød 2+ goals

53%

Hillerød 3+ goals

26%

Lyngby 1+ goals

92%

Lyngby 2+ goals

71%

Lyngby 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Hillerød (draw refunded)

34%

Lyngby (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hillerød at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

Lyngby away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hillerød attack 2.00 + Lyngby defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.79

Lyngby attack 2.29 + Hillerød defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Hillerød scores more

27%

level

19%

Lyngby scores more

53%

Lyngby at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Lyngby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

S. Colyn

25'

G. Fraulo

48'

90'

Hillerød

Lyngby

Manager: Christian Lonstrup

Manager: Dan Brimsvik