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Hillerød vs Holbæk B&I — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Hillerød
Hillerød
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Holbæk B&I
Holbæk B&I
Unknown 86'
Unknown 3'
1/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hillerød36%
×Draw22%
Holbæk B&I42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hillerød
1.67
Holbæk B&I
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hillerød
1.63
Holbæk B&I
1.50

allows per match

Hillerød
2.13
Holbæk B&I
1.70

finishing

Hillerød+0.00on par
Holbæk B&I+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hillerød ↓

Holbæk B&I →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Hillerød or draw
58%
Hillerød or Holbæk B&I
78%
Draw or Holbæk B&I
64%

Winning margin

Hillerød wins by 2+
18%
Holbæk B&I wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hillerød 1+ goals
81%
Hillerød 2+ goals
50%
Hillerød 3+ goals
23%
Holbæk B&I 1+ goals
84%
Holbæk B&I 2+ goals
54%
Holbæk B&I 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Hillerød (draw refunded)
46%
Holbæk B&I (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hillerød at home — creates 1.63, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Holbæk B&I away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.70 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hillerød attack 1.63 + Holbæk B&I defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.67

Holbæk B&I attack 1.50 + Hillerød defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hillerød scores more
36%
level
22%
Holbæk B&I scores more
42%

Holbæk B&I at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Holbæk B&I will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'
86'
Hillerød
Holbæk
Christian Lonstrup
Manager: Christian Lonstrup
Janus Blond
Manager: Janus Blond

Match Recap: Hillerød vs Holbæk B&I

Hillerød and Holbæk B&I drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2026.

Goals: ? (3', 86').