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Hillerød vs HIK — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Hillerød
Hillerød
FT
1 – 0
HIK
HIK
A. Hojmark 37' (pen)
8/7/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 1Hillerød Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hillerød54%
×Draw23%
HIK23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hillerød
1.81
HIK
1.10

Hillerød creates 65% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 84 away

creates per match

Hillerød
1.80
HIK
1.15

allows per match

Hillerød
1.05
HIK
1.82

finishing

Hillerød+0.00on par
HIK+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hillerød ↓

HIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Hillerød or draw
77%
Hillerød or HIK
77%
Draw or HIK
46%

Winning margin

Hillerød wins by 2+
30%
HIK wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hillerød 1+ goals
84%
Hillerød 2+ goals
54%
Hillerød 3+ goals
27%
HIK 1+ goals
67%
HIK 2+ goals
30%
HIK 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Hillerød (draw refunded)
70%
HIK (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hillerød at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

HIK away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.82 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hillerød attack 1.80 + HIK defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.81

HIK attack 1.15 + Hillerød defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hillerød scores more
54%
level
23%
HIK scores more
23%

Hillerød at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hillerød will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
A. HojmarkPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hillerød 1 – 0 HIK

Hillerød beat HIK 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 7, 2021.

Goals: A. Hojmark (37' pen).

The match was played at Hillerød Stadion in Hillerød.