Hillerød 3–1 HB Koge: Result & Stats | 1. Division

Hillerød

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

HB Koge

8/23/2025

1. Division · Round 7Helsingor Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Hillerød47%

×Draw25%

HB Koge28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HillerødExpected goals in this matchHB Koge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.18

Hillerød

1.61

HB Koge

1.18

Hillerød creates 36% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 129 away

1.55

creates per match

1.22

1.14

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Hillerød

1.55

HB Koge

1.22

allows per match

Hillerød

1.14

HB Koge

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hillerød+0.00on par

HB Koge+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hillerød ↓

HB Koge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hillerød or draw

72%

Hillerød or HB Koge

75%

Draw or HB Koge

53%

Winning margin

Hillerød wins by 2+

24%

HB Koge wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Hillerød 1+ goals

80%

Hillerød 2+ goals

48%

Hillerød 3+ goals

22%

HB Koge 1+ goals

69%

HB Koge 2+ goals

33%

HB Koge 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hillerød (draw refunded)

63%

HB Koge (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hillerød at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

HB Koge away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.68 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hillerød attack 1.55 + HB Koge defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.61

HB Koge attack 1.22 + Hillerød defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hillerød scores more

47%

level

25%

HB Koge scores more

28%

Hillerød at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Hillerød will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff