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Hillerød vs Brabrand — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Hillerød
Hillerød
FT
7 – 0
Brabrand
Brabrand
M. Al-Atlassi 80', 66', 61', 18'
J. Hemmingshoj 42'
J. Houborg 33'
E. Salamoun 27'
11/6/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 15Secma Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hillerød52%
×Draw25%
Brabrand24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hillerød
1.65
Brabrand
1.03

Hillerød creates 60% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 77 away

creates per match

Hillerød
1.74
Brabrand
1.01

allows per match

Hillerød
1.05
Brabrand
1.55

finishing

Hillerød+0.00on par
Brabrand+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hillerød ↓

Brabrand →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Hillerød or draw
76%
Hillerød or Brabrand
75%
Draw or Brabrand
48%

Winning margin

Hillerød wins by 2+
28%
Brabrand wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hillerød 1+ goals
81%
Hillerød 2+ goals
49%
Hillerød 3+ goals
23%
Brabrand 1+ goals
64%
Brabrand 2+ goals
28%
Brabrand 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hillerød (draw refunded)
69%
Brabrand (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hillerød at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

Brabrand away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hillerød attack 1.74 + Brabrand defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.65

Brabrand attack 1.01 + Hillerød defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hillerød scores more
52%
level
25%
Brabrand scores more
24%

Hillerød at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hillerød will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
M. Al-Atlassi
27'
E. Salamoun
33'
J. Houborg
42'
J. Hemmingshoj
61'
M. Al-Atlassi
66'
M. Al-Atlassi
80'
M. Al-Atlassi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hillerød vs Brabrand

Hillerød beat Brabrand 7-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on November 6, 2021.

Goals: M. Al-Atlassi (18', 61', 66', 80'), E. Salamoun (27'), J. Houborg (33'), J. Hemmingshoj (42').

The match was played at Secma Ground in Hillerød.