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Hillerød vs Aarhus Fremad — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Hillerød
Hillerød
FT
1 – 0
Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
P. Andersen 7'
9/4/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Hillerød Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hillerød41%
×Draw25%
Aarhus Fremad34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hillerød
1.48
Aarhus Fremad
1.34

Hillerød creates 10% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 81 away

creates per match

Hillerød
1.80
Aarhus Fremad
1.63

allows per match

Hillerød
1.05
Aarhus Fremad
1.15

finishing

Hillerød+0.00on par
Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hillerød ↓

Aarhus Fremad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Hillerød or draw
66%
Hillerød or Aarhus Fremad
75%
Draw or Aarhus Fremad
59%

Winning margin

Hillerød wins by 2+
20%
Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hillerød 1+ goals
77%
Hillerød 2+ goals
43%
Hillerød 3+ goals
19%
Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
74%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
39%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hillerød (draw refunded)
54%
Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hillerød at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hillerød attack 1.80 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.48

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + Hillerød defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hillerød scores more
41%
level
25%
Aarhus Fremad scores more
34%

Hillerød at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hillerød will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
P. Andersen
90+5'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Hillerød 1–0 Aarhus Fremad

Hillerød beat Aarhus Fremad 1-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 4, 2021.

Goals: P. Andersen (7').

The match was played at Hillerød Stadion in Hillerød.