Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 2–1 Whitehill Welfare

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

2 – 1

Whitehill Welfare

12/12/2020

FA Cup · 2nd Preliminary RoundKeirs Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn57%

×Draw21%

Whitehill Welfare22%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hill Of Beath HawthornExpected goals in this matchWhitehill Welfare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

1.25

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

2.13

Whitehill Welfare

1.25

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn creates 70% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 8 away

1.88

creates per match

1.38

1.13

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

1.88

Whitehill Welfare

1.38

allows per match

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

1.13

Whitehill Welfare

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn+0.00on par

Whitehill Welfare+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn ↓

Whitehill Welfare →

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn or draw

78%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn or Whitehill Welfare

79%

Draw or Whitehill Welfare

43%

Winning margin

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn wins by 2+

35%

Whitehill Welfare wins by 2+

Team goals

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 1+ goals

88%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 2+ goals

63%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 3+ goals

35%

Whitehill Welfare 1+ goals

71%

Whitehill Welfare 2+ goals

36%

Whitehill Welfare 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn (draw refunded)

72%

Whitehill Welfare (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Whitehill Welfare away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn attack 1.88 + Whitehill Welfare defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.13

Whitehill Welfare attack 1.38 + Hill Of Beath Hawthorn defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 57%?"

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn scores more

57%

level

21%

Whitehill Welfare scores more

22%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Hill Of Beath Hawthorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Whitehill Welfare

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn beat Whitehill Welfare 2-1 in FA Cup on December 12, 2020.

The match was played at Keirs Park in Hill of Beath.

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Whitehill Welfare — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Whitehill Welfare