Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 1–2 Elgin City

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Elgin City

R. Connelly 8'

K. Hester 31'

R. Dingwall 20'

11/26/2022

FA Cup · 3rd RoundKeirs Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn55%

×Draw21%

Elgin City24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hill Of Beath HawthornExpected goals in this matchElgin City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.31

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

2.06

Elgin City

1.31

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn creates 57% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

1.88

creates per match

1.50

1.13

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

1.88

Elgin City

1.50

allows per match

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn

1.13

Elgin City

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn+0.00on par

Elgin City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn ↓

Elgin City →

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn or draw

76%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn or Elgin City

79%

Draw or Elgin City

45%

Winning margin

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn wins by 2+

32%

Elgin City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 1+ goals

87%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 2+ goals

61%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 3+ goals

34%

Elgin City 1+ goals

73%

Elgin City 2+ goals

38%

Elgin City 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn (draw refunded)

69%

Elgin City (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Elgin City away — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn attack 1.88 + Elgin City defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.06

Elgin City attack 1.50 + Hill Of Beath Hawthorn defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn scores more

55%

level

21%

Elgin City scores more

24%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Hill Of Beath Hawthorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

R. Connelly

10'

R. Draper

20'

R. Dingwall↳ R. MacEwan

31'

K. Hester↳ T. Findlay

50'

A. Mailer

58'

O. Cairns← T. Findlay

63'

L. Payne← J. Moret

63'

C. Adamson← R. Allum

66'

L. Kellichan

67'

J. Anderson← R. Draper

77'

A. Dair← D. Baur

85'

D. Lawrence← K. Hester

86'

R. Dingwall

88'

S. Leishman

Hill

Elgin

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: J. Dair

63'▲L. Payne←▼J. Moret

63'▲C. Adamson←▼R. Allum

77'▲A. Dair←▼D. Baur

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn substitutes

14Payne12Adamson15Dair16Harley17MacLachlan21Donaldson18Quinn

Manager: G. Price

58'▲O. Cairns←▼T. Findlay

67'▲J. Anderson←▼R. Draper

85'▲D. Lawrence←▼K. Hester

Elgin City substitutes

12Cairns14Anderson17Lawrence18Sopel15Antoniazzi21Dunn16MacInnes19Allen

Match Recap: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Elgin City

Elgin City beat Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 2-1 in FA Cup on November 26, 2022.

Goals: R. Connelly (8'), R. Dingwall (20'), K. Hester (31').

The match was played at Keirs Park in Hill of Beath.

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Elgin City — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Elgin City