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Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Blackburn United — FA Cup 2019

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
FT
2 – 0
Blackburn United
Blackburn United
8/10/2019FA CupFA Cup · 1st Preliminary RoundKeirs Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn66%
×Draw20%
Blackburn United14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
2.06
Blackburn United
0.81

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn creates 154% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 4 away

creates per match

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
1.88
Blackburn United
0.50

allows per match

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn
1.13
Blackburn United
2.25

finishing

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn+0.00on par
Blackburn United+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn ↓

Blackburn United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn or draw
86%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn or Blackburn United
80%
Draw or Blackburn United
34%

Winning margin

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn wins by 2+
42%
Blackburn United wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 1+ goals
87%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 2+ goals
61%
Hill Of Beath Hawthorn 3+ goals
34%
Blackburn United 1+ goals
56%
Blackburn United 2+ goals
19%
Blackburn United 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn (draw refunded)
83%
Blackburn United (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Blackburn United away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn attack 1.88 + Blackburn United defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.06

Blackburn United attack 0.50 + Hill Of Beath Hawthorn defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn scores more
66%
level
20%
Blackburn United scores more
14%

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Hill Of Beath Hawthorn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hill Of Beath Hawthorn vs Blackburn United

Hill Of Beath Hawthorn beat Blackburn United 2-0 in FA Cup on August 10, 2019.

The match was played at Keirs Park in Hill of Beath.