Hilden 2–2 Union Nettetal: Result & Stats

Hilden

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Union Nettetal

11/19/2023

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 15Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Hilden60%

×Draw20%

Union Nettetal20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HildenExpected goals in this matchUnion Nettetal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.23

Hilden

2.25

Union Nettetal

1.23

Hilden creates 83% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 74 away

2.27

creates per match

1.34

1.12

allows per match

2.23

creates per match

Hilden

2.27

Union Nettetal

1.34

allows per match

Hilden

1.12

Union Nettetal

2.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilden+0.00on par

Union Nettetal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden ↓

Union Nettetal →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Hilden or draw

80%

Hilden or Union Nettetal

80%

Draw or Union Nettetal

40%

Winning margin

Hilden wins by 2+

38%

Union Nettetal wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hilden 1+ goals

89%

Hilden 2+ goals

65%

Hilden 3+ goals

39%

Union Nettetal 1+ goals

71%

Union Nettetal 2+ goals

35%

Union Nettetal 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hilden (draw refunded)

75%

Union Nettetal (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.12 · 89 matches

Union Nettetal away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.23 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden attack 2.27 + Union Nettetal defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.25

Union Nettetal attack 1.34 + Hilden defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hilden scores more

60%

level

20%

Union Nettetal scores more

20%

Hilden at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff