Hilden 3–0 TVD Velbert: Result & Stats

Hilden

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

TVD Velbert

4/25/2025

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 29Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Hilden58%

×Draw20%

TVD Velbert21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HildenExpected goals in this matchTVD Velbert

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.25

Hilden

2.17

TVD Velbert

1.25

Hilden creates 74% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 72 away

2.27

creates per match

1.38

1.12

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Hilden

2.27

TVD Velbert

1.38

allows per match

Hilden

1.12

TVD Velbert

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilden+0.00on par

TVD Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden ↓

TVD Velbert →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Hilden or draw

79%

Hilden or TVD Velbert

80%

Draw or TVD Velbert

42%

Winning margin

Hilden wins by 2+

36%

TVD Velbert wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Hilden 1+ goals

89%

Hilden 2+ goals

64%

Hilden 3+ goals

36%

TVD Velbert 1+ goals

71%

TVD Velbert 2+ goals

36%

TVD Velbert 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hilden (draw refunded)

73%

TVD Velbert (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.12 · 89 matches

TVD Velbert away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.07 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden attack 2.27 + TVD Velbert defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.17

TVD Velbert attack 1.38 + Hilden defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Hilden scores more

58%

level

20%

TVD Velbert scores more

21%

Hilden at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff