Hilden 3–1 Teutonia St.Tönis: Result & Stats

Hilden

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Teutonia St.Tönis

3/18/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 22Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Hilden50%

×Draw21%

Teutonia St.Tönis28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HildenExpected goals in this matchTeutonia St.Tönis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.51

Hilden

2.06

Teutonia St.Tönis

1.51

Hilden creates 36% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 21 away

2.27

creates per match

1.90

1.12

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Hilden

2.27

Teutonia St.Tönis

1.90

allows per match

Hilden

1.12

Teutonia St.Tönis

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilden+0.00on par

Teutonia St.Tönis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden ↓

Teutonia St.Tönis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Hilden or draw

72%

Hilden or Teutonia St.Tönis

79%

Draw or Teutonia St.Tönis

50%

Winning margin

Hilden wins by 2+

29%

Teutonia St.Tönis wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Hilden 1+ goals

87%

Hilden 2+ goals

61%

Hilden 3+ goals

34%

Teutonia St.Tönis 1+ goals

78%

Teutonia St.Tönis 2+ goals

44%

Teutonia St.Tönis 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hilden (draw refunded)

64%

Teutonia St.Tönis (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.12 · 89 matches

Teutonia St.Tönis away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden attack 2.27 + Teutonia St.Tönis defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.06

Teutonia St.Tönis attack 1.90 + Hilden defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hilden scores more

50%

level

21%

Teutonia St.Tönis scores more

28%

Hilden at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff