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Hilden vs SF Niederwenigern — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Hilden
Hilden
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 2
SF Niederwenigern
SF Niederwenigern
D. Wasilewski 45', 10'
P. Weber 40'
D. Enz 12'
M. Mandel 11'
5/25/2025Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 33Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hilden63%
×Draw19%
SF Niederwenigern18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilden
2.32
SF Niederwenigern
1.14

Hilden creates 104% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 38 away

creates per match

Hilden
2.27
SF Niederwenigern
1.16

allows per match

Hilden
1.12
SF Niederwenigern
2.37

finishing

Hilden+0.00on par
SF Niederwenigern+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden ↓

SF Niederwenigern →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Hilden or draw
82%
Hilden or SF Niederwenigern
81%
Draw or SF Niederwenigern
37%

Winning margin

Hilden wins by 2+
41%
SF Niederwenigern wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hilden 1+ goals
90%
Hilden 2+ goals
67%
Hilden 3+ goals
40%
SF Niederwenigern 1+ goals
68%
SF Niederwenigern 2+ goals
32%
SF Niederwenigern 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hilden (draw refunded)
78%
SF Niederwenigern (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.12 · 89 matches

SF Niederwenigern away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden attack 2.27 + SF Niederwenigern defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 2.32

SF Niederwenigern attack 1.16 + Hilden defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Hilden scores more
63%
level
19%
SF Niederwenigern scores more
18%

Hilden at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
D. Wasilewski
11'
M. Mandel
12'
D. Enz
40'
P. Weber
45'
D. Wasilewski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Hilden 3–2 SF Niederwenigern

Hilden beat SF Niederwenigern 3-2 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on May 25, 2025.

Goals: D. Wasilewski (10', 45'), M. Mandel (11'), D. Enz (12'), P. Weber (40').

The match was played at Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse in Hilden.