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Hilden vs SC Velbert — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Hilden
Hilden
CANC
17:30
SC Velbert
SC Velbert
5/13/2021Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 40Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Hilden69%
×Draw17%
SC Velbert14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilden
2.54
SC Velbert
1.06

Hilden creates 140% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 22 away

creates per match

Hilden
2.27
SC Velbert
1.00

allows per match

Hilden
1.12
SC Velbert
2.82

finishing

Hilden+0.00on par
SC Velbert+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden ↓

SC Velbert →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Hilden or draw
86%
Hilden or SC Velbert
83%
Draw or SC Velbert
31%

Winning margin

Hilden wins by 2+
47%
SC Velbert wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hilden 1+ goals
92%
Hilden 2+ goals
72%
Hilden 3+ goals
46%
SC Velbert 1+ goals
65%
SC Velbert 2+ goals
29%
SC Velbert 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hilden (draw refunded)
83%
SC Velbert (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.12 · 89 matches

SC Velbert away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden attack 2.27 + SC Velbert defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 2.54

SC Velbert attack 1.00 + Hilden defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Hilden scores more
69%
level
17%
SC Velbert scores more
14%

Hilden at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hilden face SC Velbert (Oberliga - Niederrhein)

Oberliga - Niederrhein returns with Hilden hosting SC Velbert. Match starts May 13, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Hilden host SC Velbert at Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.