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Hilden vs MSV Düsseldorf — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Hilden
Hilden
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
MSV Düsseldorf
MSV Düsseldorf
8/28/2022Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 5Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hilden49%
×Draw21%
MSV Düsseldorf29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilden
2.06
MSV Düsseldorf
1.56

Hilden creates 32% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 20 away

creates per match

Hilden
2.27
MSV Düsseldorf
2.00

allows per match

Hilden
1.12
MSV Düsseldorf
1.85

finishing

Hilden+0.00on par
MSV Düsseldorf+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden ↓

MSV Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Hilden or draw
71%
Hilden or MSV Düsseldorf
79%
Draw or MSV Düsseldorf
51%

Winning margin

Hilden wins by 2+
28%
MSV Düsseldorf wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hilden 1+ goals
87%
Hilden 2+ goals
61%
Hilden 3+ goals
34%
MSV Düsseldorf 1+ goals
79%
MSV Düsseldorf 2+ goals
46%
MSV Düsseldorf 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hilden (draw refunded)
63%
MSV Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.12 · 89 matches

MSV Düsseldorf away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden attack 2.27 + MSV Düsseldorf defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.06

MSV Düsseldorf attack 2.00 + Hilden defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hilden scores more
49%
level
21%
MSV Düsseldorf scores more
29%

Hilden at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hilden vs MSV Düsseldorf

Hilden beat MSV Düsseldorf 2-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse in Hilden.