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Hilden vs KFC Uerdingen 05 — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Hilden
Hilden
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
KFC Uerdingen 05
KFC Uerdingen 05
10/25/2025Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 11Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Hilden50%
×Draw23%
KFC Uerdingen 0528%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilden
1.83
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.31

Hilden creates 40% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 53 away

creates per match

Hilden
2.27
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.51

allows per match

Hilden
1.12
KFC Uerdingen 05
1.40

finishing

Hilden+0.00on par
KFC Uerdingen 05+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden ↓

KFC Uerdingen 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Hilden or draw
72%
Hilden or KFC Uerdingen 05
77%
Draw or KFC Uerdingen 05
50%

Winning margin

Hilden wins by 2+
27%
KFC Uerdingen 05 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hilden 1+ goals
84%
Hilden 2+ goals
54%
Hilden 3+ goals
28%
KFC Uerdingen 05 1+ goals
73%
KFC Uerdingen 05 2+ goals
38%
KFC Uerdingen 05 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hilden (draw refunded)
64%
KFC Uerdingen 05 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.12 · 89 matches

KFC Uerdingen 05 away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.40 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden attack 2.27 + KFC Uerdingen 05 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.83

KFC Uerdingen 05 attack 1.51 + Hilden defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hilden scores more
50%
level
23%
KFC Uerdingen 05 scores more
28%

Hilden at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Niederrhein: Hilden 0–1 KFC Uerdingen 05

KFC Uerdingen 05 beat Hilden 1-0 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse in Hilden.