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Hilden vs Homberg — Oberliga - Niederrhein 2020

Hilden
Hilden
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Homberg
Homberg
3/17/2024Oberliga - NiederrheinOberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 23Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Hilden54%
×Draw21%
Homberg24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilden
2.05
Homberg
1.31

Hilden creates 56% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 71 away

creates per match

Hilden
2.27
Homberg
1.51

allows per match

Hilden
1.12
Homberg
1.83

finishing

Hilden+0.00on par
Homberg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden ↓

Homberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hilden or draw
76%
Hilden or Homberg
79%
Draw or Homberg
46%

Winning margin

Hilden wins by 2+
32%
Homberg wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Hilden 1+ goals
87%
Hilden 2+ goals
61%
Hilden 3+ goals
33%
Homberg 1+ goals
73%
Homberg 2+ goals
38%
Homberg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Hilden (draw refunded)
69%
Homberg (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.12 · 89 matches

Homberg away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.83 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden attack 2.27 + Homberg defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.05

Homberg attack 1.51 + Hilden defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hilden scores more
54%
level
21%
Homberg scores more
24%

Hilden at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hilden vs Homberg

Hilden beat Homberg 4-1 in Oberliga - Niederrhein on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse in Hilden.