Hilden 2–0 FSV Duisburg: Result & Stats

Hilden

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FSV Duisburg

P. Weber 81'

P. Percoco 78'

9/21/2022

Oberliga - Niederrhein · Niederrhein - 9Sportplatz Hoffeldstrasse

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Hilden69%

×Draw17%

FSV Duisburg14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HildenExpected goals in this matchFSV Duisburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.48

1.03

Hilden

2.48

FSV Duisburg

1.03

Hilden creates 141% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 42 away

2.27

creates per match

0.93

1.12

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Hilden

2.27

FSV Duisburg

0.93

allows per match

Hilden

1.12

FSV Duisburg

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilden+0.00on par

FSV Duisburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden ↓

FSV Duisburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Hilden or draw

86%

Hilden or FSV Duisburg

83%

Draw or FSV Duisburg

31%

Winning margin

Hilden wins by 2+

46%

FSV Duisburg wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Hilden 1+ goals

92%

Hilden 2+ goals

70%

Hilden 3+ goals

44%

FSV Duisburg 1+ goals

64%

FSV Duisburg 2+ goals

28%

FSV Duisburg 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hilden (draw refunded)

83%

FSV Duisburg (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.12 · 89 matches

FSV Duisburg away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.69 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden attack 2.27 + FSV Duisburg defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.48

FSV Duisburg attack 0.93 + Hilden defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Hilden scores more

69%

level

17%

FSV Duisburg scores more

14%

Hilden at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Hilden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

78'

P. Percoco

81'

P. Weber

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff