Hilden U19 1–0 Verl U19: Result & Stats

Hilden U19

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Verl U19

5/13/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League B - 2Toni-Turek-Stadion Erkrath

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hilden U1949%

×Draw21%

Verl U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilden U19Expected goals in this matchVerl U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.71

Hilden U19

2.19

Verl U19

1.71

Hilden U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 23 away

1.67

creates per match

1.09

2.33

allows per match

2.70

creates per match

Hilden U19

1.67

Verl U19

1.09

allows per match

Hilden U19

2.33

Verl U19

2.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Verl U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden U19 ↓

Verl U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

54%46%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Hilden U19 or draw

69%

Hilden U19 or Verl U19

79%

Draw or Verl U19

51%

Winning margin

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

29%

Verl U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hilden U19 1+ goals

89%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

64%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

37%

Verl U19 1+ goals

82%

Verl U19 2+ goals

51%

Verl U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Verl U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

Verl U19 away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.70 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden U19 attack 1.67 + Verl U19 defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.19

Verl U19 attack 1.09 + Hilden U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hilden U19 scores more

49%

level

21%

Verl U19 scores more

31%

Hilden U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hilden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff