Hilden U19 1–2 Schalke 04 U19: Result & Stats

Hilden U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Schalke 04 U19

V. Ismailji 3'

S. Kojic 75'

K. Topp 2'

11/12/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 9Bezirkssportanlage Am Bandsbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hilden U1926%

×Draw21%

Schalke 04 U1954%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilden U19Expected goals in this matchSchalke 04 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

2.17

Hilden U19

1.46

Schalke 04 U19

2.17

Schalke 04 U19 creates 49% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 68 away

1.67

creates per match

2.00

2.33

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Hilden U19

1.67

Schalke 04 U19

2.00

allows per match

Hilden U19

2.33

Schalke 04 U19

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden U19 ↓

Schalke 04 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Hilden U19 or draw

46%

Hilden U19 or Schalke 04 U19

79%

Draw or Schalke 04 U19

74%

Winning margin

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

11%

Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Hilden U19 1+ goals

77%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

43%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

18%

Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals

89%

Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals

64%

Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

Schalke 04 U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden U19 attack 1.67 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Schalke 04 U19 attack 2.00 + Hilden U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Hilden U19 scores more

26%

level

21%

Schalke 04 U19 scores more

54%

Schalke 04 U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Schalke 04 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

K. Topp

3'

V. Ismailji

15'

B. Arslanboga← S. Dombe

46'

K. Aninkorah-Meisel← Y. Tonye

46'

M. Grüger← E. Lanfer

46'

S. Kojic← K. Topp

65'

B. Potnar← B. Fazlija

65'

M. Alexy← C. Kayser

65'

P. Buczkowski← D. Milic

75'

S. Kojic

85'

N. Hadzha← T. Osmani

Hilden

Schalke

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: P. Schütz

15'▲B. Arslanboga←▼S. Dombe

65'▲B. Potnar←▼B. Fazlija

65'▲M. Alexy←▼C. Kayser

Hilden U19 substitutes

ArslanbogaPotnarAlexyLewandowskiThesisTairiBeinhauer

Manager: N. Elgert

46'▲K. Aninkorah-Meisel←▼Y. Tonye

46'▲M. Grüger←▼E. Lanfer

46'▲S. Kojic←▼K. Topp

65'▲P. Buczkowski←▼D. Milic

85'▲N. Hadzha←▼T. Osmani

Schalke 04 U19 substitutes

Aninkorah-MeiselGrügerKojicBuczkowskiHadzhaRödelFerreira

Match Recap: Hilden U19 vs Schalke 04 U19

Schalke 04 U19 beat Hilden U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 12, 2022.

Goals: K. Topp (2'), V. Ismailji (3'), S. Kojic (75').

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Am Bandsbusch in Hilden.

Hilden U19 vs Schalke 04 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hilden U19 vs Schalke 04 U19