Hilden U19 0–1 RW Oberhausen U19: Result & Stats

Hilden U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

RW Oberhausen U19

E. Özat 45+1'

10/29/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 7Bezirkssportanlage Am Bandsbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hilden U1942%

×Draw22%

RW Oberhausen U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilden U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.75

Hilden U19

1.91

RW Oberhausen U19

1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 51 away

1.67

creates per match

1.18

2.33

allows per match

2.14

creates per match

Hilden U19

1.67

RW Oberhausen U19

1.18

allows per match

Hilden U19

2.33

RW Oberhausen U19

2.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilden U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Hilden U19 or draw

64%

Hilden U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

78%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

58%

Winning margin

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

23%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hilden U19 1+ goals

85%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

57%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

30%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

83%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

52%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

54%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden U19 attack 1.67 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.91

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.18 + Hilden U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hilden U19 scores more

42%

level

22%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

36%

Hilden U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hilden U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+1'

E. Özat

46'

C. Mockschan← P. Spittmann

46'

L. Tairi← M. Beinhauer

61'

T. Simakis← A. Sancarbarlaz

75'

D. Lewandowski← C. Kayser

75'

V. Ismailji← B. Potnar

75'

A. Terzi← J. Symalla

90+1'

E. Hadzibajramovic← E. Özat

Hilden

RW

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Schütz

46'▲C. Mockschan←▼P. Spittmann

46'▲L. Tairi←▼M. Beinhauer

75'▲D. Lewandowski←▼C. Kayser

75'▲V. Ismailji←▼B. Potnar

Hilden U19 substitutes

MockschanTairiLewandowskiIsmailjiDervisValentineMersinli

Manager: M. Kaya

61'▲T. Simakis←▼A. Sancarbarlaz

75'▲A. Terzi←▼J. Symalla

90+1'▲E. Hadzibajramovic←▼E. Özat

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

SimakisTerziHadzibajramovicHennemannPlathHotBöhm