Hilden U19 1–1 Preußen Münster U19: Result & Stats

Hilden U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Preußen Münster U19

C. Mockschan 54'

J. Ticha 14'

2/25/2023

U19 Bundesliga · West - 13Nebenplatz Stadion Bandsbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hilden U1936%

×Draw21%

Preußen Münster U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilden U19Expected goals in this matchPreußen Münster U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.99

Hilden U19

1.82

Preußen Münster U19

1.99

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 60 away

1.67

creates per match

1.65

2.33

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Hilden U19

1.67

Preußen Münster U19

1.65

allows per match

Hilden U19

2.33

Preußen Münster U19

1.97

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Preußen Münster U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden U19 ↓

Preußen Münster U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Hilden U19 or draw

57%

Hilden U19 or Preußen Münster U19

79%

Draw or Preußen Münster U19

64%

Winning margin

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

19%

Preußen Münster U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Hilden U19 1+ goals

84%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

54%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

27%

Preußen Münster U19 1+ goals

86%

Preußen Münster U19 2+ goals

59%

Preußen Münster U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Preußen Münster U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

Preußen Münster U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.97 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden U19 attack 1.67 + Preußen Münster U19 defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.82

Preußen Münster U19 attack 1.65 + Hilden U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hilden U19 scores more

36%

level

21%

Preußen Münster U19 scores more

43%

Preußen Münster U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Preußen Münster U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

J. Ticha

21'

B. Evers← A. Hoti

46'

B. Potnar← C. Kayser

54'

C. Mockschan

61'

D. Tchadjobo← M. Pehlivan

61'

S. Becker← J. Häusler

61'

B. Matteo Wolf← T. Hausotter

69'

D. Lewandowski← S. Schröder

80'

E. Dervis← M. Beinhauer

83'

M. Kruphölter← P. Pinto

86'

P. Spittmann← B. Arslanboga

Hilden

Preußen

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Schütz

46'▲B. Potnar←▼C. Kayser

69'▲D. Lewandowski←▼S. Schröder

80'▲E. Dervis←▼M. Beinhauer

86'▲P. Spittmann←▼B. Arslanboga

Hilden U19 substitutes

PotnarLewandowskiDervisSpittmannThesisSchwarz

Manager: T. Harink

21'▲B. Evers←▼A. Hoti

61'▲D. Tchadjobo←▼M. Pehlivan

61'▲S. Becker←▼J. Häusler

61'▲B. Matteo Wolf←▼T. Hausotter

83'▲M. Kruphölter←▼P. Pinto

Preußen Münster U19 substitutes

EversTchadjoboBeckerWolfKruphölterSarrafyarAlter