Hilden U19 4–3 Magdeburg U19: Result & Stats

Hilden U19

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Magdeburg U19

D. Lewandowski 90'

B. Potnar 62', 52' (pen)

P. Spittmann 41'

C. Krüger 85'

M. Ruffing 67'

E. Schültke 15'

5/6/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - League B - 1Toni-Turek-Stadion Erkrath

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hilden U1937%

×Draw20%

Magdeburg U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilden U19Expected goals in this matchMagdeburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

2.17

Hilden U19

2.00

Magdeburg U19

2.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 62 away

1.67

creates per match

2.02

2.33

allows per match

2.34

creates per match

Hilden U19

1.67

Magdeburg U19

2.02

allows per match

Hilden U19

2.33

Magdeburg U19

2.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Magdeburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden U19 ↓

Magdeburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Hilden U19 or draw

57%

Hilden U19 or Magdeburg U19

80%

Draw or Magdeburg U19

63%

Winning margin

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

20%

Magdeburg U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Hilden U19 1+ goals

86%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

59%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

32%

Magdeburg U19 1+ goals

89%

Magdeburg U19 2+ goals

64%

Magdeburg U19 3+ goals

36%

Draw no bet

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Magdeburg U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

Magdeburg U19 away — creates 2.02, concedes 2.34 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden U19 attack 1.67 + Magdeburg U19 defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.00

Magdeburg U19 attack 2.02 + Hilden U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Hilden U19 scores more

37%

level

20%

Magdeburg U19 scores more

43%

Magdeburg U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Magdeburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

E. Schültke

41'

P. Spittmann

46'

B. Potnar← B. Fazlija

46'

A. Kastanov← T. Sanatci

52'

B. PotnarPenalty

56'

L. Mergner← E. Dittrich

56'

P. Heinrich← M. Baars

62'

T. Schwarz← B. Arslanboga

62'

B. Potnar

63'

D. Lewandowski← P. Spittmann

65'

T. Reh← E. Elekwa

67'

M. Ruffing

74'

J. Tkacik← M. Majetic

74'

V. Ismailji← C. Mockschan

81'

L. Grabenberg← J. Klautzsch

85'

C. Krüger

90'

D. Lewandowski

Hilden

Magdeburg

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Spittmann

Kayser

Manager: P. Schütz

46'▲B. Potnar←▼B. Fazlija

62'▲T. Schwarz←▼B. Arslanboga

63'▲D. Lewandowski←▼P. Spittmann

74'▲J. Tkacik←▼M. Majetic

74'▲V. Ismailji←▼C. Mockschan

Hilden U19 substitutes

PotnarSchwarzLewandowskiTkacikIsmailjiHorsch

Manager: D. Wölfel

46'▲A. Kastanov←▼T. Sanatci

56'▲L. Mergner←▼E. Dittrich

56'▲P. Heinrich←▼M. Baars

65'▲T. Reh←▼E. Elekwa

81'▲L. Grabenberg←▼J. Klautzsch

Magdeburg U19 substitutes

KastanovMergnerHeinrichRehGrabenbergKöppeKallis

U19 Bundesliga: Hilden U19 4–3 Magdeburg U19

Hilden U19 beat Magdeburg U19 4-3 in U19 Bundesliga on May 6, 2023.

Goals: E. Schültke (15'), P. Spittmann (41'), B. Potnar (52' pen, 62'), M. Ruffing (67'), C. Krüger (85'), D. Lewandowski (90').

The match was played at Toni-Turek-Stadion Erkrath in Erkrath.

Hilden U19 vs Magdeburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hilden U19 4–3 Magdeburg U19