Hilden U19 0–5 Köln U19: Result & Stats

Hilden U19

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Köln U19

L. Cortijo-Lange 90'

J. Potočnik 78', 40'

A. Bayakala 67'

J. Diehl 24'

3/11/2023

U19 Bundesliga · West - 15Bezirkssportanlage Am Bandsbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hilden U1924%

×Draw20%

Köln U1956%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilden U19Expected goals in this matchKöln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

2.22

Hilden U19

1.39

Köln U19

2.22

Köln U19 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 73 away

1.67

creates per match

2.11

2.33

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Hilden U19

1.67

Köln U19

2.11

allows per match

Hilden U19

2.33

Köln U19

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden U19 ↓

Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Hilden U19 or draw

44%

Hilden U19 or Köln U19

80%

Draw or Köln U19

76%

Winning margin

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

10%

Köln U19 wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Hilden U19 1+ goals

75%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

40%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

16%

Köln U19 1+ goals

89%

Köln U19 2+ goals

65%

Köln U19 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

30%

Köln U19 (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

Köln U19 away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden U19 attack 1.67 + Köln U19 defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.39

Köln U19 attack 2.11 + Hilden U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hilden U19 scores more

24%

level

20%

Köln U19 scores more

56%

Köln U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

J. Diehl

40'

J. Potočnik

46'

P. Spittmann← C. Kayser

65'

A. Bayakala← A. Süne

65'

J. Krautkrämer← T. Toure

67'

A. Bayakala

72'

M. Majetic← E. Dervis

72'

T. Schwarz← T. Mersinli

76'

M. Becker← J. Diehl

76'

P. Thieltges← E. Kujović

78'

J. Potočnik

83'

B. Fazlija← M. Beinhauer

83'

C. Liampos← B. Arslanboga

83'

L. Cortijo-Lange← L. Simnica

90'

L. Cortijo-Lange

Hilden

Köln

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: P. Schütz

46'▲P. Spittmann←▼C. Kayser

72'▲M. Majetic←▼E. Dervis

72'▲T. Schwarz←▼T. Mersinli

83'▲B. Fazlija←▼M. Beinhauer

83'▲C. Liampos←▼B. Arslanboga

Hilden U19 substitutes

SpittmannMajeticSchwarzFazlijaLiamposThesis

Manager: S. Ruthenbeck

65'▲A. Bayakala←▼A. Süne

65'▲J. Krautkrämer←▼T. Toure

76'▲M. Becker←▼J. Diehl

76'▲P. Thieltges←▼E. Kujović

83'▲L. Cortijo-Lange←▼L. Simnica

Köln U19 substitutes

BayakalaKrautkrämerBeckerThieltgesCortijo-LangePauliHauer

Match Recap: Hilden U19 vs Köln U19

Köln U19 beat Hilden U19 5-0 in U19 Bundesliga on March 11, 2023.

Goals: J. Diehl (24'), J. Potočnik (40', 78'), A. Bayakala (67'), L. Cortijo-Lange (90').

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Am Bandsbusch in Hilden.

Hilden U19 vs Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Hilden U19 vs Köln U19