Hilden U19 2–3 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Hilden U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

S. Dombe 42'

B. Fazlija 28' (pen)

R. Arabaci 81', 70'

S. Dombe 55' (OG)

10/1/2022

U19 Bundesliga · West - 5Bezirkssportanlage Am Bandsbusch

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Hilden U1930%

×Draw22%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilden U19Expected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

2.00

Hilden U19

1.56

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

2.00

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 68 away

1.67

creates per match

1.68

2.33

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Hilden U19

1.67

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.68

allows per match

Hilden U19

2.33

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilden U19+0.00on par

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilden U19 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Hilden U19 or draw

52%

Hilden U19 or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

78%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

70%

Winning margin

Hilden U19 wins by 2+

14%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Hilden U19 1+ goals

79%

Hilden U19 2+ goals

46%

Hilden U19 3+ goals

21%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 1+ goals

86%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 2+ goals

59%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Hilden U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilden U19 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 12 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.46 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilden U19 attack 1.67 + Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.56

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 attack 1.68 + Hilden U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hilden U19 scores more

30%

level

22%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 scores more

48%

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

B. FazlijaPenalty

42'

S. Dombe

43'

P. Spittmann← A. Sari

46'

B. Potnar← J. Tkacik

46'

E. Dervis← B. Arslanboga

46'

A. Holl← J. Meyer

46'

I. Jeng← K. Tchouange

55'

S. DombeOwn goal

58'

L. Tairi← P. Spittmann

64'

L. Wagemann← D. Ilic

64'

R. Arabaci← S. Soghomonian

70'

R. Arabaci

77'

M. Ramku← S. Dombe

81'

R. Arabaci

87'

H. Frees← K. Suso

Hilden

Fortuna

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽🥅

▼

Dombe

Kayser

▼

Tkacik

Manager: P. Schütz

43'▲P. Spittmann←▼A. Sari

46'▲B. Potnar←▼J. Tkacik

46'▲E. Dervis←▼B. Arslanboga

58'▲L. Tairi←▼P. Spittmann

77'▲M. Ramku←▼S. Dombe

Hilden U19 substitutes

SpittmannPotnarDervisTairiRamkuThesisIsmailji

Manager: J. Langeneke

46'▲A. Holl←▼J. Meyer

46'▲I. Jeng←▼K. Tchouange

64'▲L. Wagemann←▼D. Ilic

64'▲R. Arabaci←▼S. Soghomonian

87'▲H. Frees←▼K. Suso

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 substitutes

HollJengWagemannArabaciFreesChuisseGeisler

U19 Bundesliga: Hilden U19 2–3 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19

Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 beat Hilden U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on October 1, 2022.

Goals: B. Fazlija (28' pen), S. Dombe (42', 55' o.g.), R. Arabaci (70', 81').

The match was played at Bezirkssportanlage Am Bandsbusch in Hilden.

Hilden U19 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Hilden U19 2–3 Fortuna Düsseldorf U19