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Hilal Obayed vs Merreikh El-Fasher — Sudani Premier League 2019

Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
FT
1 – 0
Merreikh El-Fasher
Merreikh El-Fasher
2/6/2021Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 8Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Hilal Obayed48%
×Draw29%
Merreikh El-Fasher23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal Obayed
1.25
Merreikh El-Fasher
0.76

Hilal Obayed creates 64% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 48 away

creates per match

Hilal Obayed
1.33
Merreikh El-Fasher
0.67

allows per match

Hilal Obayed
0.84
Merreikh El-Fasher
1.17

finishing

Hilal Obayed+0.00on par
Merreikh El-Fasher+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal Obayed ↓

Merreikh El-Fasher →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hilal Obayed or draw
77%
Hilal Obayed or Merreikh El-Fasher
71%
Draw or Merreikh El-Fasher
52%

Winning margin

Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
22%
Merreikh El-Fasher wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
71%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
36%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
13%
Merreikh El-Fasher 1+ goals
53%
Merreikh El-Fasher 2+ goals
18%
Merreikh El-Fasher 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
68%
Merreikh El-Fasher (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal Obayed at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.84 · 58 matches

Merreikh El-Fasher away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal Obayed attack 1.33 + Merreikh El-Fasher defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Merreikh El-Fasher attack 0.67 + Hilal Obayed defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hilal Obayed scores more
48%
level
29%
Merreikh El-Fasher scores more
23%

Hilal Obayed at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hilal Obayed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Hilal Obayed 1–0 Merreikh El-Fasher

Hilal Obayed beat Merreikh El-Fasher 1-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 6, 2021.

The match was played at Khartoum Stadium in Khartoum.