Hilal Obayed 2–1 Hay Al Arab: Result & Stats

Hilal Obayed

FT

2 – 1

Hay Al Arab

3/10/2021

Sudani Premier League · Round 10Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Hilal Obayed46%

×Draw29%

Hay Al Arab25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hilal ObayedExpected goals in this matchHay Al Arab

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.83

Hilal Obayed

1.23

Hay Al Arab

0.83

Hilal Obayed creates 48% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 76 away

1.33

creates per match

0.82

0.84

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Hilal Obayed

1.33

Hay Al Arab

0.82

allows per match

Hilal Obayed

0.84

Hay Al Arab

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hilal Obayed+0.00on par

Hay Al Arab+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal Obayed ↓

Hay Al Arab →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hilal Obayed or draw

75%

Hilal Obayed or Hay Al Arab

71%

Draw or Hay Al Arab

54%

Winning margin

Hilal Obayed wins by 2+

20%

Hay Al Arab wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Hilal Obayed 1+ goals

71%

Hilal Obayed 2+ goals

35%

Hilal Obayed 3+ goals

13%

Hay Al Arab 1+ goals

56%

Hay Al Arab 2+ goals

20%

Hay Al Arab 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)

65%

Hay Al Arab (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal Obayed at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.84 · 58 matches

Hay Al Arab away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.12 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal Obayed attack 1.33 + Hay Al Arab defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.23

Hay Al Arab attack 0.82 + Hilal Obayed defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hilal Obayed scores more

46%

level

29%

Hay Al Arab scores more

25%

Hilal Obayed at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hilal Obayed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff