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Hilal Obayed vs Alamal Atbara — Sudani Premier League 2019

Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
FT
4 – 1
Alamal Atbara
Alamal Atbara
12/26/2018Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 5Al-Ubayyid Stadium (Al Obayed (Al-Ubayyid))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Hilal Obayed46%
×Draw29%
Alamal Atbara25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal Obayed
1.29
Alamal Atbara
0.87

Hilal Obayed creates 48% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 86 away

creates per match

Hilal Obayed
1.33
Alamal Atbara
0.90

allows per match

Hilal Obayed
0.84
Alamal Atbara
1.24

finishing

Hilal Obayed+0.00on par
Alamal Atbara+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal Obayed ↓

Alamal Atbara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Hilal Obayed or draw
75%
Hilal Obayed or Alamal Atbara
71%
Draw or Alamal Atbara
54%

Winning margin

Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
21%
Alamal Atbara wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
72%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
37%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
14%
Alamal Atbara 1+ goals
58%
Alamal Atbara 2+ goals
22%
Alamal Atbara 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
65%
Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal Obayed at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.84 · 58 matches

Alamal Atbara away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.24 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal Obayed attack 1.33 + Alamal Atbara defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Alamal Atbara attack 0.90 + Hilal Obayed defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Hilal Obayed scores more
46%
level
29%
Alamal Atbara scores more
25%

Hilal Obayed at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Hilal Obayed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hilal Obayed 4 – 1 Alamal Atbara

Hilal Obayed beat Alamal Atbara 4-1 in Sudani Premier League on December 26, 2018.

The match was played at Al-Ubayyid Stadium (Al Obayed (Al-Ubayyid)).