Alamal Atbara 0–1 Hilal Obayed: Result & Stats

Alamal Atbara

FT

0 – 1

Hilal Obayed

8/10/2021

Sudani Premier League · Round 27Khartoum Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Alamal Atbara44%

×Draw30%

Hilal Obayed26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alamal AtbaraExpected goals in this matchHilal Obayed

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.86

Alamal Atbara

1.20

Hilal Obayed

0.86

Alamal Atbara creates 40% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 56 away

1.08

creates per match

0.86

0.87

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Alamal Atbara

1.08

Hilal Obayed

0.86

allows per match

Alamal Atbara

0.87

Hilal Obayed

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alamal Atbara+0.00on par

Hilal Obayed+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alamal Atbara ↓

Hilal Obayed →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Alamal Atbara or draw

74%

Alamal Atbara or Hilal Obayed

70%

Draw or Hilal Obayed

56%

Winning margin

Alamal Atbara wins by 2+

19%

Hilal Obayed wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alamal Atbara 1+ goals

70%

Alamal Atbara 2+ goals

34%

Alamal Atbara 3+ goals

12%

Hilal Obayed 1+ goals

58%

Hilal Obayed 2+ goals

21%

Hilal Obayed 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Alamal Atbara (draw refunded)

62%

Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alamal Atbara at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.87 · 79 matches

Hilal Obayed away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alamal Atbara attack 1.08 + Hilal Obayed defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.20

Hilal Obayed attack 0.86 + Alamal Atbara defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Alamal Atbara scores more

44%

level

30%

Hilal Obayed scores more

26%

Alamal Atbara at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Alamal Atbara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff