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Hilal Obayed vs Al-Ahly Merowe — Sudani Premier League 2019

Hilal Obayed
Hilal Obayed
FT
0 – 2
Al-Ahly Merowe
Al-Ahly Merowe
2/22/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 5Port Sudan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Hilal Obayed50%
×Draw28%
Al-Ahly Merowe22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal Obayed
1.34
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.77

Hilal Obayed creates 74% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 74 away

creates per match

Hilal Obayed
1.33
Al-Ahly Merowe
0.70

allows per match

Hilal Obayed
0.84
Al-Ahly Merowe
1.35

finishing

Hilal Obayed+0.00on par
Al-Ahly Merowe+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal Obayed ↓

Al-Ahly Merowe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Hilal Obayed or draw
78%
Hilal Obayed or Al-Ahly Merowe
72%
Draw or Al-Ahly Merowe
50%

Winning margin

Hilal Obayed wins by 2+
24%
Al-Ahly Merowe wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Hilal Obayed 1+ goals
74%
Hilal Obayed 2+ goals
39%
Hilal Obayed 3+ goals
15%
Al-Ahly Merowe 1+ goals
54%
Al-Ahly Merowe 2+ goals
18%
Al-Ahly Merowe 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hilal Obayed (draw refunded)
70%
Al-Ahly Merowe (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal Obayed at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.84 · 58 matches

Al-Ahly Merowe away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.35 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal Obayed attack 1.33 + Al-Ahly Merowe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.34

Al-Ahly Merowe attack 0.70 + Hilal Obayed defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hilal Obayed scores more
50%
level
28%
Al-Ahly Merowe scores more
22%

Hilal Obayed at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Hilal Obayed will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hilal Obayed vs Al-Ahly Merowe

Al-Ahly Merowe beat Hilal Obayed 2-0 in Sudani Premier League on February 22, 2022.

The match was played at Port Sudan Stadium in Port Sudan.