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Hilal El-Fasher vs Wad Nubawi — Sudani Premier League 2019

Hilal El-Fasher
Hilal El-Fasher
FT
1 – 1
Wad Nubawi
Wad Nubawi
11/25/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 10Alnagea Staduim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Hilal El-Fasher42%
×Draw30%
Wad Nubawi28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal El-Fasher
1.14
Wad Nubawi
0.88

Hilal El-Fasher creates 30% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 28 away

creates per match

Hilal El-Fasher
1.20
Wad Nubawi
0.71

allows per match

Hilal El-Fasher
1.04
Wad Nubawi
1.07

finishing

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par
Wad Nubawi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal El-Fasher ↓

Wad Nubawi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Hilal El-Fasher or draw
72%
Hilal El-Fasher or Wad Nubawi
70%
Draw or Wad Nubawi
58%

Winning margin

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+
18%
Wad Nubawi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals
68%
Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals
32%
Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals
11%
Wad Nubawi 1+ goals
59%
Wad Nubawi 2+ goals
22%
Wad Nubawi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)
60%
Wad Nubawi (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal El-Fasher at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 74 matches

Wad Nubawi away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.20 + Wad Nubawi defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.14

Wad Nubawi attack 0.71 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hilal El-Fasher scores more
42%
level
30%
Wad Nubawi scores more
28%

Hilal El-Fasher at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hilal El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hilal El-Fasher vs Wad Nubawi

Hilal El-Fasher and Wad Nubawi drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on November 25, 2022.

The match was played at Alnagea Staduim in Al Fashir.