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Hilal El-Fasher vs Al Zoma Khartoum — Sudani Premier League 2019

Hilal El-Fasher
Hilal El-Fasher
FT
1 – 1
Al Zoma Khartoum
Al Zoma Khartoum
12/20/2022Sudani Premier LeagueSudani Premier League · Round 15Alnagea Staduim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Hilal El-Fasher49%
×Draw27%
Al Zoma Khartoum24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hilal El-Fasher
1.39
Al Zoma Khartoum
0.88

Hilal El-Fasher creates 58% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 14 away

creates per match

Hilal El-Fasher
1.20
Al Zoma Khartoum
0.71

allows per match

Hilal El-Fasher
1.04
Al Zoma Khartoum
1.57

finishing

Hilal El-Fasher+0.00on par
Al Zoma Khartoum+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hilal El-Fasher ↓

Al Zoma Khartoum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hilal El-Fasher or draw
76%
Hilal El-Fasher or Al Zoma Khartoum
73%
Draw or Al Zoma Khartoum
51%

Winning margin

Hilal El-Fasher wins by 2+
24%
Al Zoma Khartoum wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hilal El-Fasher 1+ goals
75%
Hilal El-Fasher 2+ goals
40%
Hilal El-Fasher 3+ goals
16%
Al Zoma Khartoum 1+ goals
59%
Al Zoma Khartoum 2+ goals
22%
Al Zoma Khartoum 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hilal El-Fasher (draw refunded)
67%
Al Zoma Khartoum (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hilal El-Fasher at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.04 · 74 matches

Al Zoma Khartoum away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hilal El-Fasher attack 1.20 + Al Zoma Khartoum defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Al Zoma Khartoum attack 0.71 + Hilal El-Fasher defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hilal El-Fasher scores more
49%
level
27%
Al Zoma Khartoum scores more
24%

Hilal El-Fasher at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hilal El-Fasher will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sudani Premier League: Hilal El-Fasher 1–1 Al Zoma Khartoum

Hilal El-Fasher and Al Zoma Khartoum drew 1-1 in Sudani Premier League on December 20, 2022.

The match was played at Alnagea Staduim in Al Fashir.